McCain/Obama electoral vote map

Written by Kevin on Tue Jun 24 12:05:50 -0400 2008

In the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004, Republicans and Democrats were almost evenly matched in the only battleground that counts, the Electoral College.

So the big question for 2008 is: Which normally Republican states will Obama snatch away, and which normally Democratic states will McCain grab?

I've created a model that takes into account various factors, such as Obama's strong appeal among young people, those highly credentialed (such as people with advanced degrees), and African-Americans, and McCain's appeal to the military and their families, Appalachians and working-class people (except African-Americans), and independents seeking a straight-talk type. So McCain does better than a Republican might be expected to do in, say, Michigan and Kentucky, and Obama does better than another Democrat in Virginia and Colorado. (There is an added factor, the candidacy of Bob Barr, that puts states like Georgia and Virginia into play.)

If you have any thoughts on building a model to project the November election, please pass them along to me at editor@ultimatejohnmccain.com.

Here's my current projection of how the Electoral College would work out in November, if things continued the way they've been going.